Al Qaeda has not confirmed the demise of chief Ayman al-Zawahiri. (File)

Paris, France:

Five months after the United States introduced the killing of Al-Qaeda’s chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan, the worldwide jihadist group has nonetheless not confirmed his demise or introduced a brand new boss.

In early August, US President Joe Biden stated US armed forces fired two missiles from a drone flying above the Afghan capital, hanging al-Zawahiri’s secure home and killing him.

But the group’s propaganda arms have continued to broadcast undated audio or video messages of the bearded Egyptian ideologue who led the group after US particular forces in 2011 killed its charismatic founder Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.

“This is really bizarre,” stated Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the Counter-Extremism Project suppose tank.

“A network only works with a leader. You need a person around which everything coalesces.”

Almost all choices stay open.

“It could of course be the case that the United States is wrong about his death,” researchers Raffaello Pantucci and Kabir Taneja wrote in early December on the Lawfare web site.

But “this would seem unlikely given the confidence with which President Biden publicly spoke about the strike.”

Successor in hiding?

Another chance is that the group has up to now didn’t make contact with Zawahiri’s almost certainly successor, his former quantity two, who goes by the nom de guerre Saif al-Adl or “sword of justice”.

A former Egyptian particular forces lieutenant-colonel who turned to jihadism within the Nineteen Eighties, he’s believed by observers to be in Iran.

The Islamic republic’s Shiite rulers formally oppose Sunni Al-Qaeda, however opponents have repeatedly accused Iran of cooperating with the community and giving sanctuary to its leaders.

For Schindler, Saif al-Adl “is a liability but also an asset for the Iranian regime”.

According to its pursuits, Tehran might determine handy him over to the United States, or enable him to assault the West.

Al-Qaeda may be conserving quiet about Zawahiri’s demise underneath strain from the Taliban, Pantucci and Taneja instructed.

The group issued a rigorously worded assertion in August, neither confirming Zawahiri’s presence in Afghanistan nor acknowledging his demise.

“Their decision not to comment could be part of their efforts to manage their fragile but deep relationship with Al-Qaeda, while also avoiding drawing attention to the foreign terror group presence in direct contravention of their agreement with the United States,” they stated.

Saif al-Adl is also useless or in hiding to keep away from the destiny of his predecessor or the 2 final leaders of the community’s most important rival, the Islamic State group, who have been additionally killed final yr.

Zawahiri didn’t attempt to emulate bin Laden’s charisma and affect after he took over the community however performed a key position in decentralising the group.

Al-Qaeda is in the present day a far cry from the group that carried out the September 11, 2001 assaults towards the United States.

It now has autonomous franchises scattered throughout the Middle East, Africa and Southeast Asia which are far much less depending on central command than beforehand when it comes to operations, funding and technique.

‘Limited significance’

Barak Mendelsohn, a US-based Al-Qaeda knowledgeable, stated it was arduous to inform why the group was taking time to announce a brand new chief, including that the delay was not “very consequential”.

“Ultimately the wait reflects Al-Qaeda central’s limited importance,” he stated.

“It’s a symbol unifying groups across borders, but its operational relevance is low.”

Al-Qaeda’s arch-enemy Islamic State has confronted comparable difficulties in filling its management since its “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi killed himself throughout a US raid in Syria in 2019.

After his two successors have been killed final yr, IS this autumn selected a relative unknown as its new chief, who claims heritage from the prophet’s Quraysh tribe to spice up his legitimacy.

Tore Hamming, a fellow on the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, stated it was not important for Al-Qaeda to have a symbolic chief to talk in its title.

“We have seen with the Islamic State (group) since 2019, it does not necessarily matter,” he stated.

IS elected new caliphs, however “no one knew who they were and never heard from them. Yet still affiliates remained loyal,” he defined.

“For Al-Qaeda it could be the same, just with a council of senior figures playing the role of an amir,” or chief.

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