The raging violence between Israeli forces and Hamas has cast a shadow on the upcoming COP28 climate summit where a consensus on reducing emissions by at least 43% in the next seven years to achieve the Paris Goal of keeping warming under 1.5°C is a key mandate.

Amid security concerns over the venue for the summit being closer to the conflict zone, in UAE, COP28 officials have said they are focused on delivering the mandate of the negotiations. The officials also rejected security concerns, saying that “it will be one of the most attended COPs ever”.

But experts aware of discussions in the run-up to the summit, due to be held in November-December, said the crisis in Israel-Gaza has led to uncertainty over consensus-building efforts and has reduced the room for resources. “It’s unclear how things are going to unfold. The conflict risks delaying crucial global efforts to combat climate change, especially the support needed by developing countries to green their economies and manage climate impacts. At a time when unified efforts and resources are desperately needed for climate action, they are instead being diverted due to the war, risking further global environmental consequences,” said an independent observer who did not wish to be named.

The UAE COP28 team said it was “focusing on delivering COP28 mandate”, while mentioning that the country expects to see de-escalation in violence, a stance not taken yet by western countries that back Israel in its retaliation of the terror attacks launched by Hamas. “We are engaging with partners; we are encouraging all parties to come together and that needs to be our focus. The UAE clearly believes that the international community will come together to de-escalate the situation,” a senior UAE official said at a news briefing on Friday.

President of UAE, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also denounced the violence and the loss of lives, the official said.

“Our President, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan has been very clear that he wants to see a de-escalation of tensions in Israel and we want to see a peaceful resolution of the horrible situation there. The UAE has been shocked at the loss of Palestinian and Israeli lives and believes civilians should be protected at all costs. It’s very important that we de-escalate the situation very quickly and not allow it to spread to other regions,” the official said.

Violence in the region erupted last weekend as the armed Hamas group launched attacks on southern Israel that have so far killed over 1,300 people, mostly civilians. Hamas fighters took about 150 people hostage in the worst terror attack in nearly half a century. In retaliation, the Israeli military targeted the Hamas-ruled Palestinian enclave of Gaza, killing more than 2,000 people ahead of an expected ground invasion.

Among key mandates of the UN climate negotiations this year are the Global Stocktake, and the operationalising of the Loss and Damage Fund.

While political friction between rich and emerging economies was expected over the two issues, the geopolitical scenario emerging in West Asia may further strain the negotiations.

“Our goal is clear. We need to reduce emissions by at least 43% in the next seven years to keep 1.5 degree C warming within reach. For this to happen, everyone needs to be at the table and we need to make this the most inclusive COP yet,” ambassador Majid Al Suwaidi, COP28 director general from UAE,said last week.

“We recently held a special meeting of 50 industry leaders in Abu Dhabi from oil and gas, steel and cement sectors urging them to drive global decarbonization efforts. Success would require new technologies including CCS, green hydrogen, new infrastructure and new policies. That’s why…we know industry plays a critical role in following through with actions to reduce emissions. We have called on IOCs and NOCs (oil companies) specifically to step up and ally around net zero by or before 2050; zero out methane emissions and eliminate flaring by 2030. Around 20 oil companies have positively responded to our call. We ask that everyone comes to Dubai with solutions in hand,” Suwaidi added.

Another issue that might emerge as a sticking point is the oil and gas supply in the region amid the crisis.

In September, the synthesis report of the first Global Stocktake said that current global efforts on climate crisis are falling short of meeting the Paris Agreement goals of keeping global warming under 2°C (over pre-industrial levels) and pursuing efforts to keep it under 1.5°C.

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C with limited or no overshoot implies a reduction of around 43, 60 and 84% in global GHG emissions below the 2019 level by 2030, 2035 and 2050, respectively, according to the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This is a tall ask especially when global emissions continue to rise and a temporary breach of the 1.5°C goal has already been recorded this year.

HT reported on October 11 that the world was on course to breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold, or come close to it, if only temporarily.

“After months of relentless dialogue on the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, it is disheartening to find ourselves back at square one. Developed nations appear to be using every tactic in the book to diminish the breadth and depth of the new Fund, aiming to sidestep their responsibilities. As the globe grapples with unparalleled climatic catastrophes, we cannot permit more delays or deceptive manoeuvre. The communities bearing the brunt of these disasters, through no fault of their own, deserve genuine commitment and action, not betrayal,” said Harjeet Singh, Head, Global Political Strategy, Climate Action Network International in a statement ahead of the final meeting of the Transitional Committee on Loss and Damage being held in Egypt.

“The UAE underscored that the international community needs to work together to prevent the violence risking wider instability and spillover, including the involvement by other groups. The UAE reaffirmed that the international community must remain resolute in the face of these violent attempts to derail ongoing regional efforts aimed at dialogue, cooperation, and co-existence, and must not allow nihilistic destruction to overtake a region whose people have already suffered enough war and trauma,” UAE’s ministry of foreign affairs said last Sunday.