The southwest monsoon has withdrawn completely from the country, four days after the normal date of October 15, announced the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday.

With the setting in of north easterlies over southern peninsular India, northeast monsoon is likely to commence over the southern peninsular region in the next three days, the weather agency said.

The IMD said with the delay in the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, the initial phase of the northeast monsoon (which brings rain to Peninsular India) in general is likely to be weak.

HT reported on October 1 that this year’s monsoon brought only 94% rain, classifying it as a “below normal” season that officially draws to a close on September 30.

Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the long-period average (LPA) is considered normal.

According to the IMD, India in 2023 recorded ‘below-average’ cumulative rainfall – 820 mm compared to the LPA of 868.6 mm – in the four-month (June-September) monsoon season amid strengthening El Nino conditions.

El Nino conditions are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India. El Nino conditions have developed for the first time in seven years.

The IMD said that a low-pressure area over the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea moved nearly westwards and lay over the southeast and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea on Thursday.

It is likely to move nearly west-northwestwards and become a well-marked low-pressure area over the southwest Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours and intensify into a depression over the southwest and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea around October 21, according to the weather agency.

There is also a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over central parts of the Bay of Bengal by October 21 morning, it said. Thereafter, it is likely to intensify further into a depression over the west-central Bay of Bengal around October 23.

A cyclonic circulation is also lying over the Comorin area and neighbourhood in lower & middle tropospheric levels.

“We are not expecting any major weather activity over north India during the next 3-4 days. There is a feeble western disturbance that may bring very light rain over parts of north India on Friday and Saturday. The low over the Arabian Sea may intensify further into a cyclone and move away from the Indian coast towards Oman or Yemen, the one over the Bay of Bengal may also intensify further but we will have clarity only over the next few days,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather.